2024 Elections Preview Part II: South Africa's Suicide Pact Option

Before I move onto the American edition of my 2024 elections preview, I would like to add to my thoughts on Part I, the South African edition.

There, I posited that a weakening ANC must inevitably partner with its ideological comrades, the Zuma and Malema tendencies, because these are only mere breakaways from the movement, and not representatives of an ANC alternative. As in pro wrestling, they play a public role of ‘face’ and ‘heel’. Reunion is always possible if the script needs to change. Together, they can maintain the same grip on national politics that Mandela and Mbeki had.

And why wouldn’t the ANC make peace with its schismatic brothers rather than lose all credibility with its base by getting into bed with ‘the white party’, the DA?

But other, more connected thinkers have a different view. Robert Duigan, of Cape Independence, and Roman Cabanac, of Morning Shot, suggest this ostensibly obvious alliance is doomed from the start, for pragmatic reasons. The ANC does not want Zuma/Malema competition within graft and patronage networks. Ramaphosa and Zuma hate each other. The shared political formula makes them the best of enemies, designated rivals.

Duigan suggests that because the ANC has dirt on hidden DA corruption, and because it is largely made up of cadres who have no essential disagreement with the policy positions of the Blairist, Eurocommunist, open-borders, welfare-state Global Left, the DA makes a good fit as a pillow-partner with the ANC’s National Democratic Revolution.

This is why the DA despises the desire of their Western Cape supporters to seek secession. And, why, once in (shared) power, they will do nothing to repeal ‘rainbowism’ or to dismantle communist policies of nationalisation and increased taxation and regulation. They loved the lockdowns, after all.

So my central thesis is not wrong broadly, even within this other view. Gay race communism will endure.

Cabanac believes the ANC will try to de-stigmatize the coalition by forming instead of a dual partnership, a government of national unity, with all the parties barring the EFF and the MK, including the IFP, etc. ‘We’re not getting into bed with the whites, we’re forming a national government in a time of crisis!’ Rand stays happier; the ANC gets five more years at the trough. The party emphasizes expropriation without compensation and healthcare nationalisation to the base, and paints it as a Blairist, smart government welfare intervention to the world.

But… that will still spell likely defeat in 2029. Nothing will be fixed in South Africa. The DA and the ANC would have discredited each other. Thus the Malema/Zuma era returns. Maybe a Zuma Junior. South Africa hits a debt crisis, prints money, and we join Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Maybe a little less gay in the race communism as people focus on trying to find reliable water supply.

Ultimately, I think the two options go in the same direction, mostly because opposition to the ANC does not really exist in the plane necessary to effect change: the constitutional/structural plane.

Within the current structure, there can be nothing but destruction, perhaps by design.

There are large groups of significant people preparing for this great fall, which, to be honest, has already largely happened. The future is happening. Thus something would survive, just as it does in Zimbabwe, but on a larger scale.

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At the same time, it is perhaps feasible that some kind of Cape independence could emerge, as the West seeks some kind of orderly, not insane regime to do business with at the southern tip of Africa.

But how to prevent that regime, or any successor political structures, from embracing the global religion of gay race communism?

Strong leaders of destiny, with the nous to play the geopolitical game…

The chaos would be hellish, but there is always some potential, some opportunity in chaos. A restoration of faith, of peoplehood, perhaps even of heroism.

And as South Africa goes, the world’s laboratory since the Lord Milner era, so too does the West.

Martin Heidegger: “But where the danger is, there grows also what saves.”