Forecasting the South African Elections Tomorrow

"Laugh about it, shout about it, 
When you've got to choose, 
Every way you look at it, you lose..."

We are told tomorrow’s elections are pivotal in the history of the New South Africa. For the first time, the ruling African National Congress could ‘lose’.

But can they?

The ANC has barely lost votes amongst the black middle class to the liberal Democratic Alliance (who captured the Coloured and Afrikaner vote from the NP after 1994), and owes its gradual decline almost entirely to the splinter group, the EFF (who share the ANC’s gay race communism).

Now they are likely to bleed further with the further fracturing caused by Jacob Zuma’s MK Party (who are basically a Zulu EFF with less gay in their race communism).

The latest polling suggests support for all three adds up to… 63%, the share of the vote the ANC won in 1994.

But that does not mean we are not in for some fireworks, if the ANC cannot reach, by hook or by crook, the 50% threshold.

Here are my predictions. I posit three likely scenarios. However, all end up taking us to the same dark place.